Early Morning Kommentar
Asia midday crude futures: Ice Brent holds steady

9 July (Argus) — Ice Brent crude futures were largely steady in early Asian trading hours as the market keeps close watch on the supply outlook.

At 04:00 GMT, the Ice front-month September Brent contract was at $70.08/bl, down by 7¢/bl from its settlement on 8 July when the contract ended 57¢/bl higher.

The Nymex front-month August crude contract was at $68.25/bl, down by 8¢/bl from its settlement on 8 July when the contract ended 40¢/bl higher.

US oil production will be lower in 2025 than previously forecast but prices were revised higher on greater geopolitical risks, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA),

Domestic output will average 13.37mn b/d in 2025, the EIA said on 8 July in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), lower by 50,000 b/d from its June forecast. This is the lowest projection since the agency started including 2025 in its monthly update in January 2024.

The market is waiting for US crude inventory figures, which the EIA is scheduled to release on 9 July. EIA reported last week that US crude inventories in the week ended 27 June rose by 3.8mn bl on a sizeable build in the Gulf coast region and the highest net imports in a year.

Crude inventories rose last week in Cushing, Oklahoma, and at key Texas terminals, according to oil analytics firm AlphaBBL.

In Canada, Alberta crude inventories decreased by 12mn bl from a year earlier as pipeline capacity out of the province remained ample.

Kazakhstan's crude production rose by 40,000 b/d on the month to a record high of 1.8mn b/d in June, according to deputy energy minister Alibek Zhamauov.

He had put the country's production at 1.76mn b/d of crude in May. The 40,000 b/d increase in June takes Kazakhstan 300,000 b/d above its Opec+ production quota for June, a level almost unchanged since March.

Meanwhile, operations at India's Mumbai and Cochin ports are likely to be impacted on 9 July because of a strike called by workers' unions, shipping sources said on 8 July.

"Negotiations are on but if the strike goes through, it will affect the operations, including unloading of crude and loading of products at ports," a shipbroker said.