Early Morning Kommentar
Asia midday crude futures: Ice Brent edges lower

Ice Brent crude futures fell slightly in early Asian trading hours, as the US renewed its efforts to engage Russia directly to end the conflict in Ukraine.

At 04:00 GMT, the Ice front-month December Brent contract was at $60.90/bl, down by 16¢/bl from its settlement on 16 October, when the contract ended 85¢/bl lower.

The Nymex front-month November crude contract was at $57.31/bl, lower by 15¢/bl from its settlement on 16 October, when the contract ended lower by 81¢/bl.

US president Donald Trump said he will resume direct diplomacy with Russia to end the conflict in Ukraine, following a phone conversation with Russian president Vladimir Putin.

Trump, who just a day earlier predicted that the Russian economy would soon collapse, said that he and Putin "spent a great deal of time talking about Trade between Russia and the United States when the War with Ukraine is over".

Trump's positive readout of the call, which he said was "very productive" and resulted in "great progress", contrasts with his statements in the past month, which were critical of Russia's conduct and threatened to expand sanctions against Moscow.

Russian crude and condensate output will fall by 1pc to 510mn t (10.2mn b/d) this year, Putin said on 16 October. The decline reflects Opec+ commitments, he told the Russian Energy Week event in Moscow. This will be the lowest level in a decade — below even pandemic-hit 2020, when Russian oil production fell by 9pc to 512mn t.

In March, deputy prime minister Alexander Novak suggested that output would be 515mn-520mn t this year, compared with 516mn t in 2024. Russia has started restoring extra Opec+ cuts, but the process is moving more slowly than expected because of unspecified technical constraints, Novak said earlier this week.

Crude production of 9.32mn b/d in September — excluding condensate — was below Russia's adjusted Opec+ quota of 9.42mn b/d, which factors in compensation for overproducing in the first half of 2024.

On 15 October, the UK sanctioned China's private sector mega-refiner Yulong under the Russia Sanctions EU Exit Regulations 2019 for buying Russian crude. But Yulong also takes crude from regions such as the Americas and Mideast Gulf. In theory, any of the major global oil firms with offices in London now risk having their UK assets frozen for supplying unsanctioned grades to Yulong.

The Yemen-based Houthi militant group has vowed to continue its naval attacks — despite the peace agreement signed between Israel and the Gaza-based militant group Hamas on 10 October.

The additional war risk premium (AWRP) for vessels transiting the Red Sea, which had started to decline following the peace agreement, may rise again.

In a statement issued on 16 October, the Houthis detailed their operations, including attacks on merchant vessels in the Red Sea area that began in November 2023. They pledged to "continue until Jerusalem is liberated and [Israel] is removed", on their official Telegram channel.