Early Morning Kommentar
Asia midday crude futures: Ice Brent holds steady

18 July (Argus) — Ice Brent crude futures were largely unchanged in early Asian trading hours.

At 04:00 GMT, the Ice front-month September Brent contract was at $69.47/bl, lower by 5¢/bl from its settlement on 17 July, when the contract ended $1/bl higher.

The Nymex front-month August crude contract was at $67.48/bl, lower by 6¢/bl from its settlement on 17 July, when the contract ended $1.16/bl higher.

Iraq's federal government and its semi-autonomous Kurdistan region reached an agreement on the allocation of oil production volumes, paving the way towards the restart of northern Iraqi crude exports through Turkey's Ceyhan port.

The terms of the agreement, which Iraq's government approved on Thursday, will require the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) to immediately begin delivering at least 230,000 b/d of oil to Iraqi state marketer Somo for exports. In exchange, Baghdad will pay $16/bl — in cash or in kind — under the amended budget law, "as an advance to the Kurdish government", Iraq's government said. The delivered volumes are expected to increase at a later stage.

Negotiations between Baghdad and Erbil reached a conclusion just as drone attacks in Iraqi Kurdistan led foreign oil companies operating in the region to shut in more than 200,000 b/d of production as of Wednesday.

Elsewhere, Angola is slated to begin exports of its new medium sour Agogo crude in September. Agogo has an API gravity of 29.7° and a sulphur content of 0.64pc, according to a crude assay seen by Argus.

Agogo's distillation yields are distributed between light and heavy fractions. It has a higher kerosene cut fraction, as well as a vacuum residue yield that makes it suitable for fuel oil blending.

The first 950,000 bl shipment of Agogo is expected to load over 1-2 September, according to a provisional loading programme issued by Angola's state-owned Sonangol. The second shipment will load over 22-23 September.

The new grade will possibly find favour with buyers from China, where a majority of Angolan crude exports find an outlet, traders said. In 2024, around 51pc of total Angolan crude exports loaded for China, according to tracking data from Vortexa.

Global dealmaking in the oil and gas industry fell by 34pc in the first half of the year to just over $80bn from the same period in 2024, according to consultancy Rystad Energy.

"The slowdown is due mainly to volatile oil prices, tariff uncertainties, higher Opec+ production and fewer oil-focused deals in the US shale industry," said Rystad's vice president for upstream M&A research, Atul Raina.