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Asia midday crude futures: Ice Brent extends losses
12 September (Argus) — Ice Brent crude futures fell further in early Asian trading hours on the back of a weaker demand outlook from Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA).
At 04:00 GMT, the Ice front-month November Brent contract was at $65.87/bl, down by 50¢/bl from its settlement on 11 September, when the contract ended $1.12/bl lower.
The Nymex front-month October crude contract was at $61.85/bl, lower by 52¢/bl from its settlement on 11 September, when the contract ended $1.30/bl lower.
The IEA has lowered its 2025 forecast for global refinery runs by around 100,000 b/d to 83.4mn b/d, citing a downgrade to its Russian and Chinese estimates for the second half of the year.
Global refinery throughput reached a record monthly high of 85.1mn b/d in August, up by 400,000 b/d from July, the IEA said in its latest Oil Market Report (OMR). But this was slightly below the agency's previous forecast, because of a wave attacks on Russian refineries that affected around 2mn b/d of capacity.
"The full impact on activity levels remains unclear but we have lowered Russian crude throughput by 250,000 b/d in August and 90,000 b/d on average in the second half of 2025," the IEA said.
Chinese runs also came in below expectations in July, prompting the IEA to cut its August estimate for China by 200,000 b/d compared with its previous report. The combined revisions for Russia and China have led to a 140,000 b/d downgrade to the non-OECD forecast for the second half of 2025.
Damage to pumping stations on the Druzhba crude pipeline — part of the Transneft system — cut August Urals supplies to Hungary and Slovakia, as well as transit shipments of Kazakh Kebco to Germany. Total Druzhba crude exports almost halved to 127,000 b/d compared with July.
The consequences of drone strikes on Russian refineries is apparent in figures for August crude supplies to the country's main plants. Pipeline deliveries to refineries operated by Russia's main vertically integrated oil companies fell by a quarter on the month to 4.44mn b/d — the lowest since October 2024.
And Russian rail data for August shows a 15pc decline in supplies of diesel and other gasoil for export to 1.25mn t — the lowest in nearly two years. This drop reflects reduced deliveries to Black Sea outlets — to Novorossiysk from independent refineries in southern Russia and to Tuapse from state-controlled Rosneft's 190,000 b/d Novokuibyshev and 200,000 b/d Syzran plants, all following drone attacks.
12 September (Argus) — Ice Brent crude futures fell further in early Asian trading hours on the back of a weaker demand outlook from Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA).
At 04:00 GMT, the Ice front-month November Brent contract was at $65.87/bl, down by 50¢/bl from its settlement on 11 September, when the contract ended $1.12/bl lower.
The Nymex front-month October crude contract was at $61.85/bl, lower by 52¢/bl from its settlement on 11 September, when the contract ended $1.30/bl lower.
The IEA has lowered its 2025 forecast for global refinery runs by around 100,000 b/d to 83.4mn b/d, citing a downgrade to its Russian and Chinese estimates for the second half of the year.
Global refinery throughput reached a record monthly high of 85.1mn b/d in August, up by 400,000 b/d from July, the IEA said in its latest Oil Market Report (OMR). But this was slightly below the agency's previous forecast, because of a wave attacks on Russian refineries that affected around 2mn b/d of capacity.
"The full impact on activity levels remains unclear but we have lowered Russian crude throughput by 250,000 b/d in August and 90,000 b/d on average in the second half of 2025," the IEA said.
Chinese runs also came in below expectations in July, prompting the IEA to cut its August estimate for China by 200,000 b/d compared with its previous report. The combined revisions for Russia and China have led to a 140,000 b/d downgrade to the non-OECD forecast for the second half of 2025.
Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian crude pipelines and refineries appear to have undermined crude and product exports last month.
Damage to pumping stations on the Druzhba crude pipeline — part of the Transneft system — cut August Urals supplies to Hungary and Slovakia, as well as transit shipments of Kazakh Kebco to Germany. Total Druzhba crude exports almost halved to 127,000 b/d compared with July.
The consequences of drone strikes on Russian refineries is apparent in figures for August crude supplies to the country's main plants. Pipeline deliveries to refineries operated by Russia's main vertically integrated oil companies fell by a quarter on the month to 4.44mn b/d — the lowest since October 2024.
And Russian rail data for August shows a 15pc decline in supplies of diesel and other gasoil for export to 1.25mn t — the lowest in nearly two years. This drop reflects reduced deliveries to Black Sea outlets — to Novorossiysk from independent refineries in southern Russia and to Tuapse from state-controlled Rosneft's 190,000 b/d Novokuibyshev and 200,000 b/d Syzran plants, all following drone attacks.
By YouLiang Chay